Modeling and analysis of Tuberculosis (TB) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Abstract In this paper, we present a mathematical model on the dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, province of Pakistan. The model is parameterized using TB infected cases reported from the year 2002 to 2017 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The basic reproduction number R 0 for the given period is estimated as R 0 ≈ 1 . 3419 . Mathematical analysis of the model in terms of stability analysis is derived and discussed in detail. The model at the disease free case is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R 0 1 . Further, when the basic reproduction number R 0 > 1 , then the model is stable locally as well as globally. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are performed and their corresponding graphical results are presented. Finally, the numerical results for the sensitive parameters are plotted and their effects are shown on the disease elimination.