Online interest regarding violent attacks, gun control, and gun purchase: A causal analysis

Background Increased interest about gun ownership and gun control are oftentimes driven by informational shocks in a common factor, namely violent attacks, and the perceived need for higher levels of safety. A causal depiction of the societal interest around violent attacks, gun control and gun purchase, both synchronous and over time, should be a stepping stone for designing future strategies regarding the safety concerns of the U.S. population. Objective Examine the causal relationships between unexpected increases in population interest about violent attacks, gun control, and gun purchase. Methods Relationships among online searches for information about violent attacks, gun control, and gun purchase occurring between 2004 and 2017 in the U.S. are explained through a novel structural vector autoregressive time series model to account for simultaneous causal relationships. Results More than 20% of the stationary variability in each of gun control and gun purchase interest can be explained by the remaining factors. Gun control interest appears to be caused, in part, by violent attacks informational shocks, yet violent attacks, although impactful, have a lesser effect than gun control debate on long-term gun ownership interests. Conclusions The form in which gun control has been introduced in public debate may have further increased gun ownership interest. Reactive gun purchase interest may be an unintended side effect of gun control debate. U.S. policymakers may need to rethink current approaches to promotion of gun control, and whether societal policy debate without policy outcomes could be having unintended effects.