East-West migration in Europe: Can Serbia withstand the wind gusts?

Rising demand for skilled workers in Western Europe absorbs the most valuable human capital from CEE, thus endangering their economic prospects. The estimated econometric model indicates that the poorly governed countries the ones characterized by a high level of corruption, weak rule of law, as well as low-quality public services (healthcare, education, etc.) - are most affected by emigration. Moreover, emigration is higher in the CEE countries that have easier access to the European labour market, better-educated population and lower living standards. According to the model, the migration of the young and qualified people from Serbia is expected to additionally increase in the next five years, by 20-30%, despite the relatively high GDP growth forecast of 4%. However, if in the following years Serbia undertakes necessary reforms and reaches the institutional standards that are common in CEE, the growing trend could be reversed, lowering emigrations by 10-15% compared to the current level. Wage increase, even an extreme one, does not play a key role in containing migration from Serbia.