Effect of Time to Surgery on Outcomes in Stage I Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Abstract Background There are limited data on the safe interval from diagnosis to surgery in patients with stage I esophageal adenocarcinoma. We hypothesized that increased time to surgery would be associated with worse survival and increased nodal upstaging. Methods The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was used to identify patients with cT1N0M0 esophageal adenocarcinoma (2004-2015) who underwent esophagectomy without induction therapy. The primary outcome was survival and the secondary outcomes were the rate of margin-positive resection and pathologic nodal upstaging. Time to surgery was modeled as a categorical variable, dividing patients into quartiles (Q1-4), and as a continuous variable using piecewise linear splines centered on 50 and 100 days. Results A total of 2495 patients met study criteria. When examined in quartiles, there was no difference in survival between groups based on time to surgery in both unadjusted and multivariable analysis. As a continuous variable, increasing time to surgery less than 50 days was associated with improved survival (HR 0.99; 95%CI 0.98-1.00), Time to surgery greater than 100 days was associated with worse survival (HR 1.00; 95%CI 1.00-1.01) and increased margin-positive resection (OR 1.01; 95%CI 1.00-1.02). Treatment at a high volume center, government insurance, and diagnosis and treatment at different centers were associated with surgery beyond 100 days Conclusions Increasing time to surgery greater than 100 days is associated with worse outcomes in patients with stage I esophageal adenocarcinoma. In this patient population, esophagectomy should be offered as soon as safely possible.