Abstract 4760: Joint modeling of longitudinal tumor dynamics and survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients

Objectives: Tumor size dynamics and survival are traditionally analyzed in a 2-stage approach, without consideration of joint dependencies. The objective of this analysis was to develop a joint model which associates tumor size dynamics and progression-free survival (PFS), to predict time-to-progression. Methods: Phase 2 trial data from selumetinib (AZD6244; ARRY-142886, MEK inhibitor), in NSCLC patients (SELECT-2; NCT01750281) were used to develop a joint model for tumor size dynamics and PFS. The analysis was performed using JM package in R. Treatment arm, KRAS mutation and WHO performance status were evaluated as covariates. Model was evaluated by survival estimation based on early time (e.g., first 3 months) tumor size data. The final joint model based on SELECT-2 data was then used to predict PFS of selumetinib in SELECT-1 (NCT01933932) phase 3 trial. Results: The joint model developed on SELECT-2 data identified a significant association (p value Citation Format: Xiao Tong, James Dunyak, Diansong Zhou, David Carlile, Helen Tomkinson, Gabriel Helmlinger, Nidal Al-Huniti, Hongmei Xu. Joint modeling of longitudinal tumor dynamics and survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 4760.