Ecological niches and present and historical geographic distributions of species: a 15-year review of frameworks, results, pitfalls, and promises

Abstract. We present an overview of the emerging field of species-level distributional ecology, particularly as it relates to phylogeographic studies of birds in Eurasia. This field centers around distributional inferences and predictions deriving from the use of ecological niche modeling. We provide a brief historical review, and then proceed to outline a number of crucial methodological considerations, if models are to have biological meaning and reality. We then proceed to provide a worked example, as well as some thinking about directions in which the field should be moving in terms of questions and approaches.