Microseismicity, tectonics and seismic potential in the Western Himalayan segment, NW Himalaya, India

Abstract The tectonics and seismic potential of the western Himalayan segment (30–33°N; 76–80°E) of the NW Himalayan (India) region have been determined in this study. 423 earthquakes were located in the NW Himalaya between 2004 and 2013 using more than 4495 P and 4453 S differential travel times to determine the moment tensors for 8 (Mw ≥ 4.0) of these earthquakes using their broadband regional waveforms. The geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) plane which varies along the strike of the Himalaya in flat and ramp segments with a dip ranging between ∼2.5 to ∼4° to ∼19° below the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) in the south to the South Tibetan Detachment (STD) in the north has also been deduced in this study. Two crustal ramps were reported in this study with a depth variance below the Main Central Thrust (MCT) and to the South Tibetan Detachment (STD) between 12 to 22 km and 28 to 40 km depth respectively. The estimated earthquake potential prevailing in the western Himalayan seismic gap lying between the epicentral zone of the 1905 Kangra earthquake and the 1975 Kinnaur earthquake reveals that the total amount of energy released since the last great event is only a fraction (3–5%) of the accommodated energy i.e.1.1E+28 dyne-cm/yr. This suggests that if an earthquake hits this NW Himalayan segment in the future, its magnitude might be around Mw ≥ 8.0.