Risk index for death by infective endocarditis: a multivariate logistic model Índice de risco de mortalidade por endocardite infecciosa: um modelo logístico multivariado

Abstract Objective: This study aimed at identifying predictivevariables for in-hospital mortality, calculating the probabilityof death and creating a risk index for death by infectiveendocarditis by comparing two methods using a ReceiverOperating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted of 186consecutive cases of confirmed infective endocarditis dividedinto two groups: discharged (137) and in-hospital death (49).Based on the odds ratios obtained by multivariate analysis,the probability of death was calculated and a mortality riskindex created. Results: Factors predictive of higher mortality(multivariate analysis) and the risk index, with theirrepective weights were: age ≥ 40 years (OR = 4.16; 95%CI[1.63-10.80] - 4 points), class IV heart failure or cardiovascularshock (OR = 4.93; 95%CI [1.86-13.05] - 5 points), uncontrolledsepsis (OR = 5.97; 95%CI [1.95-18.35] - 6 points), conductiondisorder (OR = 5.07; 95%CI [1.67-15.35] - 5 points),arrhythmia (OR = 8.17; 95%CI [2.60-25.71] - 8 points), valvewith extensive damage or abscess or prosthesis (OR = 4.77;95%CI [1.44-15.76] - 5 points) and large and mobile vegetation(OR = 4.36; 95%CI [1.55-12.90] - 4 points). Patients withscores between 0 and 10 had a mortality of 5.26% and scoresover 20 of 78.9%.