A Prospective Evaluation of How a Low Level of Response to Alcohol Predicts Later Heavy Drinking and Alcohol Problems

Background and objectives: Evaluations of how a genetically influenced characteristic, such as the low level of response (a low LR) to alcohol, relates to later heavy drinking and alcohol problems usually include environmental contributors. The best way to understand how LR works in the context of these additional characteristics is to study the process prospectively, but such analyses tend to be complex and the papers are sometimes cluttered with jargon. This report attempts to offer a more straightforward description of the results from such a prospective model of how a lower LR at age 20 relates to alcohol outcomes at age 40. Methods: A structural equation model of LR at age ∼20, outcomes of heavy drinking and problems at age ∼40, and additional characteristics at age ∼35 were tested in 378 men from the San Diego Prospective Study. Results: The results support both direct effects of age-20 LR on age-40 heavy drinking and alcohol problems, as well as indirect effects of LR through characteristics of the...