Modeling, Analysis and Optimization of Grid-Integrated and Islanded Solar PV Systems for the Ethiopian Residential Sector: Considering an Emerging Utility Tariff Plan for 2021 and Beyond

Currently, difficulties such as the depletion of fossil fuel resources and the associated environmental pollution have driven the rise of other energy systems based on green energy sources. In this research, modeling and a viability study of grid-connected and islanded photovoltaic (PV) power systems for supplying the residential load in Mekelle City, Ethiopia, were carried out considering the country’s emerging utility tariff plan for 2021 and beyond. The technical viability of the proposed supply option was analyzed using PVGIS, PVWatts and HOMER Pro tool, while the economic and environmental optimization aspects were carried out using HOMER Pro. Sensitivity analyses and output comparisons among the three renewable energy simulation tools are presented. The results showed that under the consideration of an incremental electricity tariff plan (up to 2021), the analyzed cost of energy of the grid/PV system is around 12% lower than the utility grid tariff. Moreover, we also found that by taking the continuous global solar PV cost reduction into account, the cost of energy of the modeled islanded operation of solar PV power units totally broke the grid tariff in Ethiopia after 2029 based on the tariff for 2021 and well before with the expected escalation of the grid tariff on an annual basis. The technical performance of the system realized through PVGIS and PVWatts was almost comparable to the HOMER Pro outputs. Thus, this investigation will offer a clear direction to the concerned target groups and policy developers in the evolution of PV power supply options throughout the technically viable locations in the country.