[Efficacy of mini nutritional assessment short-form in predicting the risk of acute exacerbation in old chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients].

Objective: To evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of Mini Nutritional Assessment Short-form (MNA-SF) in predicting acute exacerbation of old chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Methods: The clinical data and Nutritional assessment of 202 outpatients who were given treatment in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2017 to May 2019 were analyzed. According to the frequency of acute exacerbation in the last year, patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group. The dependent variable was the risk of the acute exacerbation of COPD while the predicting model was established by using multivariate Logistic regression. Finally, the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: Among the 202 COPD patients, 131 patients (64.9%) were brought into the high-risk group and 71 patients (35.1%) were brought into the low-risk group. MNA-SF scores in high-risk group were significant lower than those in low-risk group [(9.4+/-2.1) vs (11.6+/-1.9), P<0.001]. The logistic regression analysis showed that MNA-SF score [OR=0.556(95%CI: 0.445-0.695), P<0.05] was an independent factor of acute exacerbation. The obtained model was Logit(P)=4.413-0.586xMNA-SF scores. The accuracy of model for the risk of the acute exacerbation of COPD was 77.4%, with a sensitivity of 79.7%, a specificity of 72.1%. Conclusion: MNA-SF is qualified for predicting the acute exacerbation of COPD patients in stable stage.