The current value of histological findings in negative prostate biopsies to predict the future risk of clinically significant prostate cancer.

Abstract Background Repeat prostate biopsy (PBx) is recommended under persistent suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa) or in the face of the following findings: atypical small acinar proliferation (ASAP); extense (≥3 biopsy sites) high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (HGPIN); or HGPIN with atypical glands; suspicious for adenocarcinoma (PIN-ATYP). Nowadays; multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and mpMRI targeted PBx (MRI-TBx) are recommended in repeat PBx. Our objective was to analyze the current value of ASAP; mHGPIN; PIN-ATYP and other histological findings to predict clinically significant PCa (csPCa) risk. Methods Retrospective analysis of 377 repeat PBxs. MRI-TBx was performed when Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score >3 and 12-core transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) systematic PBx when ≤2. ASAP; HGPIN; mHGPIN; PIN-ATYP; and 8 other histological findings were prospectively reported in negative PBx. CsPCa was defined as ISUP group grade >2. Results Incidence of ASAP; multifocal HGPIN (mHGPIN) and PINATYP was 4.2%; 39.7% and 3.7% respectively; and csPCa rate was statistically similar among men with these histological findings. However; the rate of csPCa was 22.2% when proliferative inflammatory atrophy (PIA) was present; and 36.1% when it was not. PIA was the only histological finding which predicted lower risk of csPCa; with an OR of 0.54 (95%CI: 0.308−0.945; P = .031). In addition; PIA was an independent predictor of a model combining clinical variables and mpMRI which reached area under de ROC curve of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.83−0.90). Conclusion PIA emerged as the only predictive histological finding of csPCa risk and can contribute to a predictive model. mHGPIN failed to predict csPCa risk. The low incidence of ASAP (4.2%) and PIN-ATYP (3.7%) prevented us from drawing conclusions.