Understanding urban shrinkage in China: Developing a multi-dimensional conceptual model and conducting empirical examination from 2000 to 2010

Abstract Many studies have explored the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in Chinese cities by examining the recent changes in the urban population. However, population change on its own may not capture the various aspects of urban shrinkage. Therefore, in this study, we built a multi-dimensional conceptual model involving demographic, economic, and social aspects to explore the varied urban development processes in China, and then conducted empirical studies in 269 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2010. We found that, although an approximate 12% of the cities in the sample experienced urban shrinkage along multiple dimensions, about 20% of the cities experienced population decline combined with economic growth and positive social development. The diverse urban development processes are closely related to the interplay of the central government's macro-regional development policies and the different local contexts. These findings suggest that researchers reconsider how they understand the urban population decline in Chinese cities and that the central government pay attention to the effects of current regional policies on urban development.