Application of neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems for river flow prediction

Abstract Appropriate outflow from a barrage should be maintained to avoid flooding on the downstream side during the rainy season. Due to the nonlinear and fuzzy behaviour of hydrological processes, and in cases of scarcity of relevant data, it is difficult to simulate the desired outflow using physically-based models. Artificial intelligence techniques, namely artificial neural networks (ANN) and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), were used in the reported study to estimate the flow at the downstream stretch of a river using flow data for upstream locations. Comparison of the performance of ANN and ANFIS was made by estimating daily outflow from a barrage located in the downstream region of Mahanadi River basin, India, using daily release data from the Hirakud Reservoir, located some distance upstream of the barrage. To obtain the best input—output mapping, five different models with various input combinations were evaluated using both techniques. The significance of the contribution of tw...