Modeling the decision process for barley yellow dwarf management

Models were created to emulate experts in barley yellow dwarf management.Treated seed, planting date, scouting time, and insecticide spray decisions modeled.Dependency network models simplify complex sets of conditions.These methods can easily be used to manage other pests and diseases.Models will disseminate real-time information on smartphone app and website. Since the 1980s, expert decision support systems (DSSs) have been explored for enhancement of agricultural decision-making. Combinations of expert DSSs and cyber-age technology, such as mobile devices, is increasing adoption and accuracy of these systems and will allow DSSs to be easily modified to incorporate new information and web-based resources as they become available. Using barley yellow dwarf (BYD), a disease complex caused by several aphid-vectored viruses, as a model system we created a DSS for winter wheat growers based on dependency networks. At key points throughout the growing season the networks interpret how field conditions may affect management recommendations for BYD in winter wheat. To address nine possible management recommendations the networks analyze 72,387 combinations of input field conditions. This method of decision modeling can potentially be used to provide support to enable the efficient management of other crop pests and diseases and enable a more sustainable agroecosystem. The DSS was created for use in a mobile device app which will produce real-time recommendations, emulating disease management experts. Coupling this expert DSS with high resolution weather, pest, and disease forecasts will prove to be a powerful management tool in the future.