Survival Analysis of Rigid Pavement Expected and Remaining Service Life Based on Long-Term Pavement Performance Sections

Pavement service life is a key factor in both pavement design and management. In many cases, the service life is not directly observed because of limited coverage of an observation window. This is particularly true for rigid pavements as they usually stay in service for a long period of time. In this study, pavement sections including continuous reinforced concrete and jointed concrete pavement from the Long-Term Pavement Performance Program involving four southern U.S. states are highlighted. These sections are subject to the real-world traffic and environment conditions. A statistical technique referred to as survival analysis is used to model the relationship between pavement life and related variables such as structure, traffic, and environment. The model estimation results reveal the deterioration process and provide a probabilistic distribution of the service life. Furthermore, the remaining service life is also calculated based on expected and used lives. This research paper demonstrates that the survival analysis technique can serve as an effective tool to capture unobserved service life. Therefore, the expected and remaining pavement service life is more accurately estimated.