The relevance of city size to the vulnerability of surrounding rural areas: An empirical study of flooding in Pakistan

Abstract To date, much of the research on the dynamics of vulnerability has been done on a regional or national spatial scale comparing vulnerability of countries or counties or assessing the influence of city size on the vulnerability of the city itself. Little attention has been paid to how city size influences the vulnerability of surrounding rural areas—this has been investigated in this study. A conceptual framework – City Size and Rural Vulnerability (SCARV) – is proposed and operationalised in the context of Pakistan. A household survey was conducted to collect 325 samples from the flood-affected rural population surrounding three different sized cities in Punjab Province, Pakistan. Indicators of vulnerability were identified, and an index-based approach was used to get the composite values of the three components of vulnerability—namely, exposure, susceptibility and capacity. The composite values were then classified to identify the level of vulnerability of each household. Statistical tests were performed to investigate the differences in vulnerability between the study areas. The results indicate that rural populations surrounding smaller cities are less exposed but more vulnerable as compared to rural communities surrounding larger cities. This is largely because rural populations adjoining large cities have better capacities to deal with flood hazards. This points to a need to focus on increasing the coping capacity of small and medium-sized cities and their rural surroundings. Moreover, the research highlighted the importance of rural-urban linkages in the hazard vulnerability discourse. These results can help disaster managers, regional and rural development planners, and practitioners to develop relevant flood risk reduction strategies which considers spatial and regional development aspects of hazard vulnerability.