Stable Low Cloud Phase II: Nocturnal Event Study

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of nights that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). This work is the second phase of a similar AMU task that examined the same phenomena during the day. In the first phase of this work, the meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity (RH) beneath the inversion and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between nights with rapid low ceiling formation and nights with low ceilings resulting from other mechanisms. The AMU found that there was little to discern between the rapidly-forming ceiling nights and other low ceiling nights at TTS. When a rapid development occurred, the average RH below the inversions was 87% while non-events had an average RH of 79%. One key parameter appeared to be the vertical wind profile in the Cape Canaveral, FL radiosonde (XMR) sounding. Eighty-three percent of the rapid development events had veering winds with height from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15,000 ft) while 61% of the non-events had veering winds with height. Veering winds indicate a warm-advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motion and ultimately cloud formation in a moist environment. However, only six of the nights (out of 86 events examined) with low cloud ceilings had an occurrence of rapidly developing ceilings. Since only 7% rapid development events were observed in this dataset, it is likely that rapid low cloud development is not a common occurrence during the night, or at least not as common as during the day. In the AMU work on the daytime rapid low cloud development (Case and Wheeler 2005), nearly 30% of the low cloud ceiling cases investigated were identified as rapidly developing events. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds/ceilings below 8000 R in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment. Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1994-2005 for nights that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the evening and morning XMR radiosonde during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Nights with precipitation or noticeable fog burn-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the nighttime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since the daytime events were examined in the first phase of this work. The report presents one sample case of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. The case depicts the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The case also illustrates how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 6 event nights with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 80 non-events nights consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The teorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event nights, since both types of nights experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of nights had a relatively moist environment beneath an inversion based below 8000 ft.