THE INFLUENCE OF PRODUCTION, EXPORTS PRICE, EXCHANGE RATE, GRATEKS-2/GERNAS POLICY, AND EXPORT DUTIES ON COCOA COMMODITY EXPORTS IN SOUTH SULAWESI, INDONESIA

The objective of this research is to analyze the influence of production, exports price, exchange rate, Grateks-2/Gernas policy, and export duties policy on cocoa exports in South Sulawesi using data from 1986 until 2015 and employing an analysis technique of Error Correlation Model (ECM). This study has already found that cocoa production, exports price, long-terms and short-terms exchange rate give a positive influence, while the production rate gives a significant influence on cocoa exports in South Sulawesi. It means that during the analysis time period, the production rate still shows a significant influence on cocoa bean export. However, if regarded from the data development in 2010, the exports development of cocoa bean actually showed a steady decrease since 2011. On the other hand, the production increased at that time, if further analyzed with long data so can be projected that the relationship of production with cocoa bean exports will be totally different along with the growth of domestic industry. Later on, Grateks-2/Gernas policy of cocoa shows a different result. This variable has a positive and negative relationship between long-term and short-term period respectively, and both of them have a significant influence or not enough evidence. The exports duties have a negative and significant influence. This result can be seen both in the long-term and short-term period meaning that the government policy of PMK Number 067/PMK.011/2010 of applying export duties work well to switch exports from cocoa bean to produced cocoa, this matter can be seen from the development of produced cocoa production, applied capacity development and investment in produced cocoa production drastically increasing every year.