Long-Term Prognosis after Stroke : A Community-Based Study in Japan

Stroke is the leading cause of severe disability in the elderly. Under the national insurance for care and assistance for the elderly starting in 2000, data must be obtained on the prognostic status of stroke patients in communities. We identified 322 incident strokes in six communities (total census population= 71, 610) during the two-or three-years survey period between 1987 and 1990, and we completed a follow-up of the respective prognoses of most of these patients at one, three, and five years after the onset (n=315 stroke patients) (98%). One year after stroke, 33% of the 315 strokes were dead, 13% were dependent, and 54% were independent. After three years, 44% were dead, 13% were dependent, and 43% were independent. After five years, 52% were dead, 9% were dependent, and 39% were independent. The long-term prognosis was poorer with increased age, and poorer for women than for men except in the case of men ages less than 55 years old at onset. Among patients who were dependents, the proportion of taken care at home was approximately 30% one year after onset, and 50% three to five years after onset. It is estimated that approximately 17 dependents from 127 incident strokes in a population of around 70, 000 every year.Because the average survival time of dependents was about 4 years, the prevalence of dependents is estimated to be 68, indicating that the prevalence is about 10 persons per 10, 000.Over the period of this study, and as compared with the reported proportions in community- based studies in the 1970's, the proportion of deaths declined and that of independents increased, probably due to reduced severity of stroke. However, the proportion of dependents did not change significantly over time. Thus, under the terms of the new national insurance, it is essential for family and communities to cooperate in taking care of dependent stroke patients.J Epidemiol, 2001 ; 11 :8-15