ASSESSMENT OF THUNDERSTORM PENETRATIONS AND DEVIATIONS BY COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT IN THE TERMINAL AREA

This analysis investigates which weather variables are correlated with arriving pilots' convective cell penetration/deviation behavior in the DFW terminal airspace. The report indicates that it is possible to train a statistical classifier that characterizes the probability that pilots will penetrate or deviate around airspace occupied by thunderstorms. The analysis outlines several desirable characteristics of a probability-of-deviation classifier. The classifiers trained and tested in this study were able to correctly classify more than 80% of the storm cell encounters in an independent data set. The analysis does not find any correlation between the weather variables and the pilot's penetration/deviation behavior near the destination airports. The vast majority of encounters near the airport in this study results in penetrations.