Generational change in fasting glucose and insulin among children at ages 5-16y: Modelled on the EarlyBird study (2015) and UK growth standards (1990) (EarlyBird 69)

Abstract Aim Pre-diabetes is a state of beta-cell stress caused by excess demand for insulin. Body mass is an important determinant of insulin demand, and BMI has risen substantially over recent time. We sought to model changes in the parameters of glucose control against rising BMI over the past 25years. Methods Using random coefficient mixed models, we established the correlations between HbA1C, fasting glucose, fasting insulin, HOMA2-IR and BMI in contemporary (2015) children ( N =307) at ages 5-16y from the EarlyBird study, and modelled their corresponding values 25years ago according to the distribution of BMI in the UK Growth Standards (1990). Results There was little change in HbA1C or fasting glucose over the 25y period at any age or in either gender. On the other hand, the estimates for fasting insulin and HOMA2-IR were substantially higher in both genders in 2015 compared with 1990. Conclusion Insofar as it is determined by body mass, there has been a substantial rise in beta cell demand among children over the past 25years. The change could be detected by fasting insulin and HOMA2-IR, but not by fasting glucose or HbA1C.