Simulation of yield distributions in millet-cowpea intercropping

Abstract A simulation model for millet-cowpea intercrop is presented. The model is developed within the generic GROWIT framework and uses a spreadsheet, In addition, a spreadsheet template is used for making stochastic dominance comparisons. The millet-cowpea model and the stochastic dominance spreadsheet are applied to the evaluation of millet and cowpea production strategies in Niger, West Africa. The validations suggest that the model captures the main tendencies of the yield distribution. In the economic analysis, simulation-derived distributions were used to rank crop production strategies according to risk characteristics using the stochastic dominance template. The simulation results complemented information from yield trials and reinforced the conclusion that a technology incorporating improved varieties, higher plant population and fertilizer has potential in south central Niger. In particular, the analysis showed that the risk characteristics of this technology could be acceptable to farmers, in comparison with the traditional practices.