Early life weight patterns and risk of obesity at 5 years: A population based cohort study

Abstract Childhood obesity is a major public health problem in industrialised countries. Recent studies suggest that obesity in adolescence is associated with characteristics present in early childhood. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of overweight/obesity at age 5 yr based on BMI percentiles at age 3 and changes in percentiles from birth to 3 years of age. In this population-based study BMI data of 5173 children were collected at ages 3 and 5 yr and were linked to information relative to birth weight. The prevalence of obesity at 5 yr was 4.5%. The risk of obesity for children born large for gestational age was 8.4% while it was 13.8% for children overweight at 3 years and 49.8% for children who were obese at 3 yr, regardless of their previous weight trajectory (the prevalences were 50%, 50% and 53% for stable, moderate and strong increasing trajectory, respectively). BMI percentile at 3 years proved to be an efficient biomarker for sustained obesity at age 5 yr. In practice, if one targeted early preventive interventions to only 15% of the population (3-year-olds affected by overweight/obesity) one can address 80% of children who would be affected by obesity at age 5 yr.