Left ventricular systolic dysfunction by longitudinal strain is an independent predictor of incident atrial fibrillation: A community-based cohort study

Background—The increasing prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) represents a public health issue. Identifying new predictors of AF is therefore necessary to plan preventive strategies. We investigated whether left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction by global longitudinal strain (GLS), a predictor of cardiovascular events, may predict new-onset AF in a population setting. Methods and Results—Participants (n=675; mean age, 71±9 years; 60% women) in sinus rhythm from the populationbased Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS) underwent 2- and 3-dimensional echocardiography as part of the Cardiac Abnormalities and Brain Lesions (CABL) study. LV systolic function was assessed by LV ejection fraction and speckletracking GLS. During a mean follow-up of 63.6±18.7 months, 32 (4.7%) new confirmed cases of AF occurred. Lower GLS (adjusted hazard ratio/unit decrease, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.43; P=0.015) and increased left atrial volume index (LAVi; adjusted hazard ratio/unit increase, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.07–1.17; P –14.7%) was associated with risk of new-onset AF with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.4–7.5; P=0.007). The coexistence of abnormal GLS/abnormal LAVi was associated with a 28.6% incidence of AF (adjusted hazard ratio, 12.1; 95% confidence interval, 3.3–44.8; P<0.001) compared with participants with normal GLS/normal LAVi (AF incidence, 2.0%). AF incidence was intermediate in those with either abnormal GLS or abnormal LAVi (9.3% and 11.1%, respectively). GLS prognostic value for incident AF was incremental over risk factors and LAVi. Conclusions—LV systolic dysfunction by GLS was a powerful and independent predictor of incident AF. GLS assessment may improve AF risk stratification in addition to established parameters. (Circ Cardiovasc Imaging. 2015;8:e003520. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCIMAGING.115.003520.)