Modeling non-point source pollutants in the vadose zone : Back to the basics

More than ever before in the history of scientific investigation, modeling is viewed as a fundamental component of the scientific method because of the relatively recent development of the computer. No longer must the scientific investigator be confined to artificially isolated studies of individual processes that can lead to oversimplified and sometimes erroneous conceptions of larger phenomena. Computer models now enable scientists to attack problems related to open systems such as climatic change, and the assessment of environmental impacts, where the whole of the interactive processes are greater than the sum of their isolated components. Environmental assessment involves the determination of change of some constituent over time. This change can be measured in real time or predicted with a model. The advantage of prediction, like preventative medicine, is that it can be used to alter the occurrence of potentially detrimental conditions before they are manifest. The much greater efficiency of preventative, rather than remedial, efforts strongly justifies the need for an ability to accurately model environmental contaminants such as non-point source (NPS) pollutants. However, the environmental modeling advances that have accompanied computer technological development are a mixed blessing. Where once we had a plethora of discordant data without a holistic theory, now the pendulum has swung so that we suffer from a growing stockpile of models of which a significant number have never been confirmed or even attempts made to confirm them. Modeling has become an end in itself rather than a means because of limited research funding, the high cost of field studies, limitations in time and patience, difficulty in cooperative research and pressure to publish papers as quickly as