Regime cycles and political change in African autocracies

A common assumption across theories of regime change in Africa is that regimes significantly change after a coup, public uprising or significant election. Yet, we often see continuity in the people, systems, policies, and political relationships that populate and structure new governments. What can explain the subtle yet significant shifts that occur among senior elites after a regime crisis? We posit that regime changes in African authoritarian systems are best explained as a part of a regime cycle driven by a process of elite contestation and consolidation, in which dynamics are defined by expectations as to when leaders may leave office. These dynamics indicate the stage of leader-elite relationships at given time, and suggest when regimes may likely expand, contract, purge, and fracture. Focusing on a cycle of factionalisation, crisis, accommodation, and consolidation, we apply our framework to understand recent regime changes in Algeria, Sudan and Zimbabwe.