A discrete choice study to assess the impact of reliability on passenger rail demand

A study is described of the impact of punctuality (i.e. where a train runs to time) and reliability (i.e. whether a train runs at all) on passengerrail demand, funded by the UK Department for Transport. This study aspires to place emphasis on actual (i.e. revealed and reported) behaviour, and to obtain direct estimates of the effects of changes in travel time variability on rail demand. Econometric analysis of rail ticket sales data has made a major contribution to understanding rail demand, and there is no reason in principle why this method cannot also yield insights into the demand impacts of train punctuality and reliability. Naturally, any such analysis might yield particular insights when applied to routes and periods thathave been subject to travel time variability. Acknowledging this, a meeting was convened with industry representatives for purposes of identifying potential study contexts. Guided by this consultation, a sample of 240 origin-destination pairs (480 single flows) on a 13-period basis from 1996 until the present was developed to form the basis for an econometric analysis. This analysis is supported by data from various sources; principally LENNON ticket sales data, generalised journey times from MOIRA and performance data directly from train operating companies (TOCs); and will exploit panel data methods. Whilst the econometric analysis is couched in terms of some notion of the aggregate, disaggregate analysis permits more detailed consideration of the agents that comprise the market. In the present case,disaggregate analysis offers a means of revealing travellers' attitudes to risk and monetary valuations of punctuality and reliability. It was decided at the outset of the project that disaggregate analysis might usefullycombine three elements: retrospective questioning, revealed preference (RP), and stated preference (SP). A passenger questionnaire appealing to both characteristics was produced. In order to mitigate the risks of relying entirely on revealed and reported preferences, a final component of the questionnaire was SP. The analysis of the data is described. For the covering abstract see ITRD E137145.