Uncertainty in domino effects analysis

Abstract The domino effect is a common phenomenon is risk analysis of chemical process accidents. Due to the limited data and the complex models, uncertainties are common in the domino effect analysis. How to quantify these uncertainties associated with the data and models of domino effects is essential. This chapter mainly discusses the uncertainty in the analysis and application of domino effect. The importance and the main source of domino effect data are presented. Database is one of the most important sources of domino, such as MHIDAS, MARS, FACTS, ARIA. Uncertainties in the data and model of domino effect are introduced. Two common methods to treat uncertainties, Bayesian network technology and Monte Carlo simulation, are discussed. In order to demonstrate the methods of quantifying uncertainty in domino effects, uncertainty analysis for domino effect of vapor cloud explosion and the pipeline leakage are analyzed.