THE RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY CONFLICT AND DEMOCRACY

Does democracy cause peace, or is democracy a consequence of peace? The burgeoning democratic peace literature has provided strong empirical evidence for the claim that democracies are a cause of peace. However, several skeptics of the democratic peace have suggested that the statistical findings are spurious. We test these competing claims using a simultaneous equation model. Using a unique data-set of all international disputes from 1960 to 1988, we find strong support for reciprocal causation. As the democratic peace theorists claim, democracy causes peace even after controlling for military conflict in the system and region. Conversely, peace in the region appears to encourage the development of democratic polities.