Joint Modeling of Land-Use, Transport and Economy

This thesis focuses on improved estimation of land-use effects and proposes an improved analytical instrument for the integrated modeling of land-use, transport, and economy. The author estimated the impact of land-use and transport measures on land-use changes under various circumstances, based on empirical evidence found in the international literature, results from the housing and labor market model estimation, and sensitivity runs with the integrated model. The model (TIGRIS XL) is tailored to the regulated land market conditions in the Netherlands and illustrates the impacts of alternative spatial policies, varying from regulated market conditions to free market conditions, on land-use projections. The author reports three conclusions: the indirect distribution effects of transport infrastructure measures are relatively small compared to direct benefits and project costs; changes in the level of spatial regulation by the government result in significantly different spatial patterns; and in a small and high density country such as the Netherlands, spatial markets overlap and the spatial regime of a region affects not only neighboring regions but also more distant regions. Land-use developments are considered a crucial element of any long-term transport strategy.