Theory on material consumption and the probability of survival of dwellings

The development of demand in buildings is, apart from demographic data and powerful economic influence, proportional to the required building volume per capita, and inversely proportional to service lifetime and total utilization of both manufacture and use. No one is able to pre-determine the time when total replacement becomes technically, economically, and socially necessary. Therefore the fitness to adjust to purpose appears to be a more-adequate strategy to achieve durability and the objection of conserving the nation's building stock and limited resources. Theoretical work carried out by the author focuses on material consumption related to life expectancy: (1) a significant correlation between the cumulative distribution of the life time variable of both demolished and withdrawn buildings with certain theoretical models, notably the Weibull distribution; (2) lifetime distribution models allow a prediction of life expectancy and can be applied for a calculation of a minimum reduced material consumption; and (3) the hazard curve for dwellings demolished an withdrawn turns out to be a parabola. An attempt is made to establish the concept and general parameters of work wherein solutions might be found to these complex problems. 7 references.