UK GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE—IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT UNDER THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

The change in government expenditure which accompanies change in agricultural land use and output is an important parameter in current policy decisions. This change is estimated in this paper using a simple accounting model which recognises the diversity of support schemes in operation and the interaction between them. Use of the model is illustrated by estimating the effects of changes in beef, sheepmeat and cereals output under alternative assumptions about market conditions, yield levels and land classes affected. The paper concludes by discussing other ways in which the model might be used.