Shortcuts in biodiversity research: What determines the performance of higher taxa as surrogates for species?

Biodiversity research is often impeded by the time and resources required to identify species. One possible solution is to use higher taxa to predict species richness and community composition. However, previous studies have shown that the performance of higher taxa as surrogates for species is highly variable, making it difficult to predict whether the method will be reliable for a particular objective. Using 8 independent datasets, I tested whether higher taxa accurately characterize the responses of beetle and ant communities to environmental drivers. For each dataset, ordinations were carried out using species and higher taxa, and the two compared using the Procrustes m² statistic (a scale-independent variant of Procrustes sum of squares). I then modelled the relationship between five hypothesised explanatory variables and 1) Procrustes m², and 2) the coefficient of determination (R²) for the correlation between richness of species and higher taxa. The species to higher taxon ratio, community structure, beta diversity, completeness of sampling, and taxon (beetles or ants) were all significant predictors of m², together explaining 88% of the variance. The only significant predictor of R² was the species to higher taxon ratio, which explained 45% of the variance. When using higher taxa to predict community composition, better performance is expected when the ratio of species to higher taxa is low, in communities with high evenness and high species turnover, and when there is niche conservation within higher taxa. When using higher taxa to predict species richness, effective surrogacy can be expected when the species to higher taxon ratio is very low. When it is not, surrogacy performance may be strongly influenced by stochastic factors, making predictions of performance difficult.