Prediction methodology for potential damage from misuse of agricultural lands

The article is devoted to development of prediction methodology for potential damage from misuse of agricultural lands such as accommodation of oil and gas industry facilities, transport, infrastructure complexes, and emergency management. The purpose of the research is to propose a methodology for determination of potential damage to territory from misuse of agricultural lands. In order to do this, the following objectives need to be achieved: - group the sources of damage from agricultural lands misuse based on empirical evidence; - determine and classify the main types of damage and their periods; - develop the methodology and mathematical apparatus for calculation and prediction of damage extent on the “municipal district-region” level; - predict the losses from agricultural lands misuse in accordance with conditions of the Samara region. The proposed methodology allows one to more accurately assess the damage to large territories (district, region, country), which is essential to the work of administrative bodies. For calculation purposes, all cases of agricultural lands misuse are divided into four categories, each of which has its features of damage development. The obtained methodology was tested in the Samara region, where annually from 2.5 to 4.0 thousand ha of agricultural lands are used for other purposes than intended. Note that more than 20% of this number is removed from use for a long period of time (for more than 10 years). Oil spills account for 2.3-4.0% of land misuse. In 2021 the resulting damage could amount to 1.9 billion rubles.