Porqué Colombia no exporta más

Este trabajo explica como los costos de comerciar (proteccion y otros costos) desestimulan las exportaciones manufactureras y por que Colombia exporta mayoritariamente productos primarios. Para esto, ademas de una revision de literatura y una descripcion del desempeno exportador colombiano, se presenta una metodologia que mide la proteccion total causada por el arancel y las medidas no arancelarias (MNA) y que permite generar una serie de la proteccion verdadera para el periodo 1950-2019. Los resultados muestran que el pais no ha explotado su potencial exportador de manufacturas porque los incentivos para hacerlo han sido magros, un resultado de la alta proteccion a la produccion local, de una infraestructura escasa y de unos servicios logisticos costosos. **** ABSTRACT: This paper explains how trade costs (protection and other costs) discourage manufacturing exports and why they are the main reason that Colombia’s main exports are basic commodities. The paper reviews the literature on exports in Colombia, shows how the volume and composition of exports evolved since 1950, proposes a methodology to calculate the protection to the manufacturing sector, estimates the total rate of protection to manufacturing and the domestic terms of trade between protected and export activities in manufacturing, examines the role of export subsidies in promoting exports, and discusses the feasibility of subsidizing exports to offset the negative impact of protection on the incentives to export. The paper concludes that Colombia has not exported more because of the poor incentives to do so, caused by the high protection to domestic production and high costs of logistic services which are explained partially by the country inadequate infrastructure.