Development of an ESCO Risk Assessment Model as a Decision-Making Tool for the Energy Savings Certificates Market Regulator: A Case Study

This article is focused on developing an Energy Service Company (ESCO) risk assessment model for use by energy savings certificates (ESC) market regulators. This model enables market regulators to determine the appropriate point in time for ESCOs to sell their certificates with the aim of minimizing risk as well as maximizing economic gain yet remain motivated for reducing the cost of energy efficiency technologies. To this end, the interactions between an ESCO and other parties (such as suppliers) in the market in addition to the principles of the energy efficiency performance contract are taken into consideration. Then, appropriate probability distributions have been fitted to the stochastic variables to be applied in the Net Present Value (NPV) function, based on sampled company data. A case study considers a one MW Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) implementation in Iran’s petrochemical industry. The finding of this study shows if the ESCO is allowed to sell the certificates during the first seven years as well reduce 30% of the investment cost, the expected Net Present Value over Investment Cost (NPV/I) savings will cover more than one cycle.