Prospects for Growth in U.S. Dairy Exports to Southeast Asia

Food demand in Southeast Asia (SEA) is expected to grow in the coming decades, creating pportunities for exporters of dairy products. The top dairy product suppliers to the region are New Zealand, the European Union (EU), the United States, and Australia. This study analyzes trends in market share over the 2006-18 timeframe and the price sensitivity for the top four U.S. dairy products imported by SEA countries: skim milk powder (SMP), whey products, cheese, and lactose. In 2018, these four products accounted for 85 percent of the total value of SEA dairy imports from the United States. Our findings show differing trends in market share and price sensitivity across products and countries. Our analysis reveals that SEA importers are more likely to substitute U.S. products for EU dairy products than for dairy products from New Zealand or Australia. Our research indicates that the United States has the potential to gain market share as import expenditures increase (holding prices constant) for cheese in Indonesia; whey products in Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines; SMP in Indonesia and Vietnam; and lactose in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia. SEA imports of U.S. dairy products are sensitive, in varying degrees, to changes in U.S. prices—as well as price changes for products from competing suppliers, such as the EU, Australia, and New Zealand.