Potential of machine learning to predict early ischemic events after carotid endarterectomy or stenting: A comparison with surgeon predictions

Background Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS) are recommended for high stroke-risk patients with carotid artery stenosis to reduce ischemic events. However, we often face difficulty in determining the best treatment method. In this study, we aimed to develop an accurate post-CEA/CAS outcome prediction model using machine learning (ML) algorithms that will serve as a basis for a new decision support tool for patient-specific treatment planning. Methods Retrospectively collected data from 165 consecutive patients with carotid stenosis underwent CEA or CAS were divided into training and test samples. The following six ML algorithms were tuned and their predictive performance evaluated by comparison with surgeon predictions: an artificial neural network, logistic regression, support vector machine, Gaussian naive Bayes, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Seventeen clinical factors were introduced into the models, and outcome was defined as any ischemic stroke within 30 days after treatment. Results The XGBoost model performed the best in the evaluation; its sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and accuracy were 66.7%, 89.5%, 50.0%, and 86.4%, respectively. All statistical measures are comparable with those of surgeons. Internal carotid artery peak systolic velocity, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and procedure (CEA or CAS) were the most contributing factors according to the XGBoost algorithm. Conclusion We were able to develop a post-procedural outcome prediction model comparable to surgeons in performance. The accurate outcome prediction model will make it possible to make a more appropriate patient-specific selection of CEA or CAS for the treatment of carotid stenosis.