A Closed-form Solution for Source-term Emission of Xenon Isotopes from Underground Nuclear Explosions

Isotopic ratios of radioactive xenons sampled in the subsurface and atmosphere can be used to detect underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and civilian nuclear reactors. Disparities in the half-lives of the radioactive decay chains are principally responsible for time-dependent concentrations of xenon isotopes. Contrasting timescales, combined with modern detection capabilities, make the xenon isotopic family a desirable surrogate for UNE detection. However, without including the physical details of post-detonation cavity changes that affect radioxenon evolution and subsurface transport, a UNE is treated as an idealized system that is both closed and well mixed for estimating xenon isotopic ratios and their correlations so that the spatially dependent behavior of xenon production, cavity leakage, and transport are overlooked. In this paper, we developed a multi-compartment model with radioactive decay and interactions between compartments. The model does not require the detailed domain geometry and parameterization that is normally needed by high-fidelity computer simulations, but can represent nuclide evolution within a compartment and migration among compartments under certain conditions. The closed-form solution to all nuclides in the series 131–136 is derived using analytical singular-value decomposition. The solution is further used to express xenon ratios as functions of time and compartment position.