Analyzing Fractionated Satellite Architectures using RAFTIMATE - A Boeing Tool for Value -Centric Design

The System F6 program’s goal is to demonstrate the technologies required for the creation of “fractionated” satellites. Satellite fractionation is desired for its reduced program and operational risks through a variety of mechanisms, including isolated development paths, survivability and an increased number of graceful failure recovery paths. Additionally, in many mission applications, there is also the potential for improved payload performance. Because the primary purpose of the System F6 program is to reduce risk through the mission life and development cycle, traditional, point -methods of satellite cost and performance analysis are inadequate to show the advantages of a fractionated approach. Instead, i t is necessary to create a stochastic model th at can properly estimate the effect of risks on program cost and performance. Boeing and DARPA have created a Value Centric Design Methodology (VCDM) tool called RAFTIMATE to calculate these outcomes. RAFTIMATE is a simulation for satellite group s that applies the risk s of program development, on -orbit and launch failures to calculate risk -adjusted life cycle performance and cost . It has been constructed with the F6 approach in mind, e.g. networked component sharing and survivability strategies. Combine d with internal performance estimating algorithms, RAFTIMATE performs a Monte Carlo simulation made up of stochastic time histories representing a specified period. This data can be used in a variety of ways ranging from focused subsystem trade studies to full system optimization. The final products of the stochastic simulation are populations of the present benefit and present costs of the cluster. Present benefit and cost are calculated using program -defined discount rates and reflect the risk -adjusted time value of money. Finally, methods have been created and used for rating and ranking these multivariate output distributions for both comparisons to baseline systems and trades of fractionated alternatives.