Survival of invasive breast cancer according to the Nottingham Prognostic Index in cases diagnosed in 1990-1999

Abstract The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) is a well established and widely used method of predicting survival of operable primary breast cancer. Aims Primary : To present the updated survival figures for each NPI Group. Secondary : From the observations to suggest reasons for the reported fall in mortality from breast cancer. Methods The NPI is compiled from grade, size and lymph node status of the primary tumour. Consecutive cases diagnosed and treated at Nottingham City Hospital in 1980–1986 ( n  = 892) and 1990–1999 ( n  = 2238) are compared. Changes in protocols towards earlier diagnosis and better case management were made in the late 1980s between the two data sets. Results Case survival (Breast Cancer Specific) at 10 years has improved overall from 55% to 77%. Within all Prognostic groups there are high relative and absolute risk reductions. The distribution of cases to Prognostic groups shows only a small increase in the numbers in better groups. Conclusion The updated survival figures overall and for each Prognostic group for the NPI are presented.