Variaciones en las circulaciones oceánica y atmosférica. Su influencia en la formación de huracanes en el Atlántico Norte

The variability of the tropical cyclones in their formation has been related to the variations that occur in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Some of the factors that have been considered to influence this variability are teleconnection patterns. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between the variations occurring in oceanic and atmospheric circulation with the formation of hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Using Principal Component Analysis and Linear Regression Analysis, it was determined that the main modulating factor of hurricane formation is the sea surface temperature, where high values are the most favorable. These high values modulate both the effect of each of the factors in the formation of the hurricanes. Others such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation also have great influence on the formation of hurricanes. An index that is capable of expressing more than 40 % of the reduction in the variance of North Atlantic hurricane formation, which combines the effect of several factors, was also determined. The two factors with which an index was determined, which expressed more than 39 % of the reduction of the variance of the formation of the hurricanes that may affect Cuba, were selected. These indices are useful for the diagnosis of hurricanes, in the North Atlantic and in Cuba.