Flow Updating in Real-Time Flood Forecasting Based on Runoff Correction by a Dynamic System Response Curve

AbstractIn order to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting, a new accurate and efficient real-time flood forecasting error correction method based on a dynamic system response curve (DSRC) is developed. The dynamic system response curve was introduced into the flood forecasting error correction to establish the dynamic error feedback updating model tracing the source of the error. In this study, the flow concentration of the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model is generalized into a system. The physical basis of the system response curve is the flow concentration of the hydrological model. The theoretical basis of the concept is the differential of the system response function of the runoff time series. Based on the observed and calculated discharge, the calculated runoff series was corrected using least-squares estimation, and then the flow was recalculated with the corrected runoff. The Xinanjiang model was selected to calculate runoff. The method was tested in both an ideal scenario and in a real case s...