Innovation and social probable knowledge

In this paper some elements of Keynes's theory of probability are used to understand the process of diffusion of an innovation. Based on a work done elsewhere (Crocco 1999, 2000), we argue that this process can be viewed as a process of dealing with the collective uncertainty about how to sort a technological problem. Expanding the concepts of weight of argument and probable knowledge to deal with this kind of uncertainty we argue that the concepts of social weight of argument and social probable knowledge can be very helpful to understand the process of diffusion of an innovation.