ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN AVIATION USING A GLOBALAIRCRAFT FLEET FORECASTING MODEL
2018
The paper presents the global fleet forecast model
FFWD which forecasts world fleet fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions. This forecast is
based on current demand forecasts, fleet data,
retirement curves, expected future aircraft entry
into service timelines, and market penetrations. To
assess the influence of novel aircraft configurations
(fleet renewal) on global CO2 emissions, a yearly
fuel consumption and utilization value is assigned
to each active aircraft. For the new aircraft in the
fleet, different technology combinations can be
modelled, which lead to variations in CO2
emissions level. Thus, different technology
scenarios can be built, where each scenario
represents different technology combinations and
entries into service. Therefore, the proposed
modelling approach allows for an estimation of the
future CO2 level evolution for each technology
scenario
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