Distribution models of temperate rocky reef habitat-forming species on the continental shelf in Eastern Australia: setting the baseline to monitor and predict future changes
2015
Habitat-formers (e.g. kelp beds, corals, sessile invertebrate assemblages) are key to the structure and
functioning of reef ecosystems worldwide. In southeast Australia, a region identified as a global
hotspot for climate-driven ocean warming, the structure and distribution of deep (> 30 m) benthic
sessile communities are poorly known given these habitats are hard to quantitatively survey. Using
high-resolution imagery of the seafloor from a recent national-scale AUV-based survey program, we
establish a critical baseline about the latitudinal gradient in benthic community composition from 27°S
to 43°S on the eastern seaboard of Australia. Large-scale latitudinal variability between three major
community types (sub-tropical, warm temperate and cool temperate) mostly correlates with primary
productivity and temperature climatology, while local scale variability relates well with depth. Using
environmental variables that capture past climatology both in terms of mean and extreme conditions,
we develop alternative distribution models for several habitat-forming species. We compare model
performance, discriminate between different types of latitudinal distribution (e.g. truncated or
continuous), and discuss these results in the context of ongoing and future ocean changes. Our study
provides an important benchmark to detect and predict future climate-driven changes in SE Australia,
and our methodology has general applicability for monitoring of deep reef environments.
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