Risk Analysis of Runway Incursion Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Runway incursion is a kind of unsafe flight incident which can easily lead to catastrophic collision of aircraft. It is of great significance to analyze the risk and improve the safety of air traffic management. Many factors affect the runway incursion unsafe event, and the analysis of influence degree of various factors has certain difficulty, and the Bayesian network is a kind of uncertainty causality model which can deal with uncertain problems and effectively express and merge multi-source information, therefore, this problem is studied by Bayesian network based on the actual operation data of some domestic airports. Bayesian network calculation model of runway incursion was built based on the analysis of factors by SHELLO model, calculated prior probability based on historical data, then the probability of the occurrence of runway incursion affected by factors was obtained by the model, it turns out L-S cause 66% of the runway incursions, the importance degree of factors and measures are sorted in the final.