Integrated risk sensitivity study for Lunar Surface Systems

This paper illustrates an innovative approach to assessing the reliability of conceptual Lunar Surface Systems architectures using an integrated analysis model. The integrated model represents systems, dependencies, and interactions to develop risk-based reliability requirements that balance functional characteristics, needs, demands, and constraints to achieve availability goals. The model utilizes “availability” metrics based on first-order descriptions of the architecture to begin providing reliability impacts even before much design detail exists. Sensitivity analyses are performed to identify key risk parameters and find “knees” in the curve for establishment of system architecture- and element-level requirements.