Small-area variation of cardiovascular diseases and select risk factors and their association to household and area poverty in South Africa: Capturing emerging trends in South Africa to better target local level interventions.

BACKGROUND: Of the total 56 million deaths worldwide during 2012, 38 million (68%) were due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), particularly cardiovascular diseases (17.5 million deaths) cancers (8.2 million) which represents46.2% and 21.7% of NCD deaths, respectively). Nearly 80 percent of the global CVD deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Some of the major CVDs such as ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke and CVD risk conditions, namely, hypertension and dyslipidaemia share common modifiable risk factors including smoking, unhealthy diets, harmful use of alcohol and physical inactivity. The CVDs are now putting a heavy strain of the health systems at both national and local levels, which have previously largely focused on infectious diseases and appalling maternal and child health. We set out to estimate district-level co-occurrence of two cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), namely, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke; and two major risk conditions for CVD, namely, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in South Africa. METHOD: The analyses were based on adults health collected as part of the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (SANHANES). We used joint disease mapping models to estimate and map the spatial distributions of risks of hypertension, self-report of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and dyslipidaemia at the district level in South Africa. The analyses were adjusted for known individual social demographic and lifestyle factors, household and district level poverty measurements using binary spatial models. RESULTS: The estimated prevalence of IHD, stroke, hypertension and dyslipidaemia revealed high inequality at the district level (median value (range): 5.4 (0-17.8%); 1.7 (0-18.2%); 32.0 (12.5-48.2%) and 52.2 (0-71.7%), respectively). The adjusted risks of stroke, hypertension and IHD were mostly high in districts in the South-Eastern parts of the country, while that of dyslipidaemia, was high in Central and top North-Eastern corridor of the country. CONCLUSIONS: The study has confirmed common modifiable risk factors of two cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), namely, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke; and two major risk conditions for CVD, namely, hypertension and dyslipidaemia. Accordingly, an integrated intervention approach addressing cardiovascular diseases and associated risk factors and conditions would be more cost effective and provide stronger impacts than individual tailored interventions only. Findings of excess district-level variations in the CVDs and their risk factor profiles might be useful for developing effective public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing behavioural risk factors including harmful use of alcohol, physical inactivity and high salt intake.